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Hurricane Forecasters Will Be Anxiously Watching The Northwest Part of the Caribbean This Weekend

SAN JUAN — The tropics may get a little more interesting by the end of the week.

Computer forecast models for days have been suggesting a system could form in the western part of the region and now the National Hurricane Center is highlighting that possibility as well.

The hurricane center thinks it’s a low possibility right now — only 20 percent over the next five days.

The hurricane center said an area of low pressure is expected to form in the northwestern Caribbean by the weekend, and gradual development is possible as it moves northwestward.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said there was “moderate” confidence a tropical depression or storm could form.

If a tropical system were to form there it wouldn’t be unusual. That area of the Caribbean has historically been a good spot for storms to evolve. Here’s a look at the history of storm formation from June 11-20 from 1851 through 2015.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1, but June isn’t typically all that busy — the peak of the season comes in August and September.

If a storm were to evolve in the Caribbean and get a name, it would be Bret.

The season got off to an early start with the formation of Tropical Storm Arlene in April in the central Atlantic.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

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The Author

John McCarthy

John McCarthy

John McCarthy is primarily known for his investigative reporting on the U.S. Virgin Islands. A series of reports beginning in the 1990's revealed that there was everything from coliform bacteria to Cryptosporidium in locally-bottled St. Croix drinking water, according to a then-unpublished University of the Virgin Islands sampling. Another report, following Hurricane Hugo in 1989, cited a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) confidential overview that said that over 40 percent of the U.S. Virgin Islands public lives below the poverty line. The Virgin Islands Free Press is the only Caribbean news source to regularly incorporate the findings of U.S. Freedom of Information Act requests. John's articles have appeared in the BVI Beacon, St. Croix Avis, San Juan Star and Virgin Islands Daily News. He is the former news director of WSVI-TV Channel 8 on St. Croix.

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