SAN JUAN — If you live here, Stormy Weather isn’t a just a jazz standard.
In a preseason forecast issued Thursday, Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project predicts the upcoming hurricane season that begins June 1 will again be busy, although not as bad as the brutal 2017 season. The forecast calls for seven hurricanes, three hurricanes at Category 3 intensity or worse, and 14 named storms.
Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, a protégé of pioneering meteorologist William Gray, blamed warm waters in the western Atlantic and the mediocre odds for an El Niño in the Pacific for the uptick.
“The odds of getting a real gangbusters El Niño that kills the season is slim,” he said. “We can’t rule anything out, but the odds are reduced.”
In total, the team believes there will be 14 named storms. Hurricane researchers predict seven of the storms will become hurricanes and three will reach “major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.”
CSU hurricane researchers believe this season’s activity will be about 135 percent of the average season. For reference, last year’s hurricane activity — which included one major storm after another — was nearly two and a half times greater than average.
This year’s forecast, the 35th in what has become a traditional season opener, relies on 29 years worth of observational data, although Klotzbach and fellow forecaster Michael Bell warn that no prediction is guaranteed. The forecast will be updated, and likely improve, in late May and again in August before the peak of the season kicks in.
“It’s like trying to pick who’s going to win the NCAA tournament in the first round,” he said. “Your odds are a lot higher in the Final Four.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration plans to issue its forecast for the season in late May, said National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen.
If Colorado State’s forecast holds true, another busy season could draw a collective moan from South Florida and the Caribbean after a punishing 2017 season. The Atlantic churned up a record 10 hurricanes in a row last year, including Harvey, Irma and Maria, for a total of 17 named storms and six major hurricanes. On average, the Atlantic produces 12 named storms and just three major hurricanes.
The accumulated cyclone energy — which tallies the sheer force of a hurricane season by totaling the number, duration and strength of storms — was the seventh highest ever recorded and the worst since 2005, when Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma hammered the Gulf Coast and South Florida.
While most of Florida has recovered, parts of the Keys where affordable housing is tight continue to struggle. As of March, Monroe County said nearly 200 families still lived in temporary FEMA trailers.