MIAMI (MH) — On the heels of one of the more devastating Florida hurricane seasons in recent memory, forecasters are calling for another above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025.
The pre-season forecast from Colorado State University, a pioneer in the realm of early storm season predictions, calls for 17 named storms, nine of which could strengthen to hurricanes and four of which could become major hurricanes — category 3 or higher.
“Not as active as we were forecasting last year at this time,” said Phil Klotzbach, CSU meteorologist and lead author of the forecast, told a crowd of meteorologists at the National Tropical Weather Conference this morning.
While the Atlantic isn’t quite as blisteringly warm as it was last year — to devastating effect for Florida’s Gulf Coast — it’s still warmer than usual, and the cooling powers of the El Niño weather phenomena likely won’t be in play this year.
The gold standard for predicting the Atlantic hurricane season is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecast in May. Generally, earlier predictions are less accurate than predictions made closer to the start of the season.
“In April, the uncertainty is fairly large. We’re still four months ahead of when things really ramp up,” Klotzbach said.
These predictions assess the weather phenomena that could point to a more or less active season and include an educated guess at the number of storms that could form as a result. So far, no one is able to accurately guess the biggest question of hurricane season in advance — who will get hit?
But, forecasters say, the more storms that form the higher the likelihood gets that someone gets whacked.
“We know, in general, busier seasons are going to have more landfalls. It’s not a guarantee,” Klotzbach said. “Obviously we can never say in April — heck, in August — a storm will make landfall at a certain point.”
CSU’s prediction is slightly above the handful of other groups that have issued pre-season predictions, including Accuweather and WeatherTiger, both of which called for fewer storms than CSU and an average season.
“The overall vibe contemplating the season ahead is less apocalyptic than last year due to water temperatures in portions of the Tropical Atlantic easing towards normal, plus uncertainty in the El Nino/La Nina outlook,” Ryan Truchelut, head of WeatherTiger, wrote in a newsletter.
Last year, CSU predicted the above-average season would include 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
The 2024 hurricane season ended up with 18 named storms, 11 of which became hurricanes and five of which became major hurricanes. That included the double whammy of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which submerged Florida’s west coast and drowned mountain towns in North Carolina.
Last year also saw Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 storm on record.
Hurricane season officially begins June 1 and ends on November 30.
By ALEX HARRIS/Miami Herald
