MIAMI — A tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so to the far east of the Caribbean. Meanwhile, odds dropped for a “short-lived” tropical cyclone to form south of Nova Scotia, the National Hurricane Center said today.
A tropical wave, located about 650 miles east-northeast of the far eastern Caribbean as of 2 p.m. Monday, is expected to become a tropical depression in the next couple of days, the National Hurricane Center said.
The system has a 60 percent chance of developing in the next two days and 70% in the next seven days. Though it became less organized overnight, it was producing thunderstorms, and experts said it could produce gale-force winds starting today.
Conditions in the next couple of days will be favorable for it to develop into a tropical depression as it moves northwest at about 15 mph, then it will turn north over the central subtropical Atlantic by late tonight or tomorrow, the center’s latest update said.
The seven-day outlook indicates it will stay over open water in the mid-Atlantic.
A trough of low pressure that emerged Sunday off the coast of Wilmington, N.C., has moved rapidly north, and is now a few hundred miles south of Nova Scotia. It had only 10 percent odds of developing further in the next two days and seven days.
Forecasters said it was traveling rapidly, at 30 to 35 mph and would reach colder waters tonight, diminishing the likelihood of the system becoming a tropical storm.
Graphic posted by the NWS about 4:45 p.m. today
The next named storm would be Emily. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.