SAN JUAN — Tropical Cyclone Five is slowly approaching the Lesser and Greater Antilles and expected to build into a hurricane but only after it passes north of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, forecasters said.
“The rainfall totals from the National Hurricane Center are thus: for the northern Leeward Islands, 4 to 6 inches of rain,” Meteo Mundo Chief Meteorologist Rusty McCranie said. “For Puerto Rico, believe it or not, and it’s not showing up a ton on the GFS model, but we’re looking at 3 to 6 inches of rain and locally up to 10. OK? So we really need to prepare in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for some excessive rainfall.”
Uncertainty still exists in the future track and intensity of this system, but the potential for flooding, mudslides and hazardous seas is high at this time. Please stay in touch with the Virgin Islands Free Press for further updates.
As of 5:00 p.m., the showers and thunderstorms of TCF continue to show some signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 950 miles (1530 km) east-southeast of Antigua.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Leeward Islands.
Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches
or warnings could be required for portions of the area as soon as later today.
The system could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle of the week.
A “fish storm,” particularly a hurricane or tropical storm, is a cyclone that turns out to the open water of the Atlantic (or Pacific) and poses no threat to land.
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the disturbance with a high potential for tropical storm development (80% within 48 hours/90% within five days). If it does become a named storm, it will be Ernesto.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
