DETROIT — Jayden Daniels had comfortably settled in as the favorite to go second overall in the NFL Draft. Then, suddenly, the odds had a very interesting turn.
The BetMGM odds for Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy going second overall had a noteworthy move early this week. McCarthy was +2500 to be the second pick on Monday, and by Tuesday morning he was +800. Then late Tuesday morning the odds moved again to +400.
The Washington Commanders hold the second pick of the draft and almost certainly will take a quarterback. But perhaps there’s more drama associated with the pick than we’ve thought for much of March.
It wouldn’t be the first time the betting market has tipped off a draft pick.
Draft markets can be volatile
Draft prop markets are unlike any other in the sports betting world.
Oddsmakers usually have a good grasp of all markets, from which team will win the Super Bowl to what the line should be for Iowa’s next NCAA women’s tournament game. With draft markets, they don’t have solid information. The markets can be volatile because lines often move on bets from sharp players. Oddsmakers don’t have a direct line to teams’ decision-makers, who wouldn’t share that information a month before the draft anyway.
But bettors have found a way. There have been many instances the past few years of bets coming in on which player will go at a certain pick, and then it happens.
That’s why the big move on McCarthy going second — even without any telling comments from the Commanders on Monday or any leaked story, though NFL Media’s Tom Pelissero did say other teams believe McCarthy could be Washington’s pick at No. 2 — can’t be totally dismissed.
Daniels is still the favorite to go No. 2 at -145. North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye is right behind at +180. McCarthy is third at +400 after the big move.
There’s probably plenty of odds moves to come for the second overall pick, and the picks after that too.
Who will be drafted 2nd overall?
Unlike some other years, there’s currently no drama in the betting world on the first pick of the NFL Draft. Caleb Williams is -10000 to go first. A bettor would have to bet $100 on Williams to go first overall to win $1.
With Williams seemingly set to go first, the drama starts at No. 2. Daniels is the Heisman Trophy winner from LSU and has gotten good buzz in the offseason. He took over as the favorite to go No. 2 overall with Maye becoming the favorite to go third. The New England Patriots hold the third pick.
McCarthy could become a wild card over the next month. He is getting healthy buzz, too, and it seems obvious he won’t be dropping far in the first round. If Williams goes first as expected, there are multiple options for the Commanders at No. 2.
The draft markets will move and there will be a trickle down to the odds of picks beyond No. 2. McCarthy seems to be on the radar for the second pick, at least in the betting world.
By FRANIK SCHWAB/NFL Writer