MIAMI — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is now calling for an “above-normal” 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
Forecasters today said the unusually warm sea surface temperatures are “likely to counterbalance the usually limiting” effects of the ongoing El Nino event.
“Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA’s updated outlook includes:
- 14-21 named storms
- 6-11 hurricanes
- 2-5 major hurricanes
The administration said it has 70 percent confidence in its forecast, which includes storms that have already formed this season. The outlook is now in line with tropical activity monitored in recent years.
“The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May’s outlook,” NOAA said. “This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season.”
On August 3, Colorado State University released a revised version of its forecast which detailed the ongoing battle between a resilient El Niño and extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical Atlantic.
CSU said it will “maintain our forecast for an above-average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.”
That included:
- 90 named storm days
- 18 named storms
- 9 hurricanes
- 35 hurricane days
- 4 major hurricanes
- 9 major hurricane days