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‘Wrong-Way’ Tropical Disturbance Has Only A 40 Percent Chance To Affect Our Region In The Next Five Days, NHC Says

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MIAMI — A weather disturbance in the western Caribbean that has the potential to develop is another sign that hurricane season has not yet ended.

The disturbance is expected to become a broad area of low pressure that may develop into a tropical cyclone during the next five days, the National Hurricane Center said today.

The system is being given a zero percent chance of developing during the next two days and a 40 percent chance during the next five days.

Currently, the system poses no threat to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, forecasters said.

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs until Nov. 30.

The NHC said it was tracking the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea off Central America on Sunday as a precaution.

“Slow development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward,” the NHC said in the forecast at 7 a.m. today.

“Mainly fair weather conditions will continue across the region,” the National Weather Service (NWS) said today. “Some passing showers may affect portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Seas up to six feet and winds up to 20 knots expected across the local waters. Therefore, small craft operators should continue to exercise caution.”

While atmospheric conditions have now become too hostile for tropical storm formation over much of the Atlantic basin, conditions over the western Caribbean may harbor development toward the end of October.

The combination of dry air, dust and strong westerly and/or southerly winds aloft will inhibit tropical storm formation over much of the Atlantic in the coming days.

However, over the far southwestern end of the Atlantic basin, or the western Caribbean Sea some of the ingredients necessary to spawn a tropical depression or storm may come together late this week and during the last weekend of October.

In the western Caribbean, waters remain very warm and winds aloft are rather light, compared to much of the balance of the Atlantic basin, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

The area is one of several zones where tropical storms typically spin up during late October and November.

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The Author

John McCarthy

John McCarthy

John McCarthy is primarily known for his investigative reporting on the U.S. Virgin Islands. A series of reports beginning in the 1990's revealed that there was everything from coliform bacteria to Cryptosporidium in locally-bottled St. Croix drinking water, according to a then-unpublished University of the Virgin Islands sampling. Another report, following Hurricane Hugo in 1989, cited a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) confidential overview that said that over 40 percent of the U.S. Virgin Islands public lives below the poverty line. The Virgin Islands Free Press is the only Caribbean news source to regularly incorporate the findings of U.S. Freedom of Information Act requests. John's articles have appeared in the BVI Beacon, St. Croix Avis, San Juan Star and Virgin Islands Daily News. He is the former news director of WSVI-TV Channel 8 on St. Croix.

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