MIAMI — A tropical disturbance swirling in the Atlantic Ocean well off the coast of Africa has been designated “Invest 95L” by the National Hurricane Center Friday, and a bump in its odds for developing into at least a tropical depression.
The tropical wave is about halfway between the Caribbean’s Lesser Antilles and the African coast. The NHC gives it a 50 percent chance of developing in the next two days, and there is a 70 percent chance of development over the next seven days.
If the storm organizes, it would be Tropical Storm Emily.
An “Invest” is simply a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center to identify areas they are investigating for possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days.
WHAT IS AN “INVEST”?
Once a system is dubbed an invest, a collection of specialized datasets and computer forecast model guidance can begin on that area of disturbed weather. These computer models simulate the system’s projected track possibilities and predict its future intensity.
This storm has peak winds of 30 mph so far, and the NHC says the system is currently drifting to the west-northwest at about 6 mph, and is expected to continue to track due west toward the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean.
“All of the models are coalescing that this will likely to continue to push westward, and at some point possibly impacting the Lesser Antilles toward the middle part of next week,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Jason Frazer.
Dry air over the Atlantic from the Saharan Dust Air Layer may prevent significant organization during the next day. Once the wave moves further into the Atlantic, conditions could be more favorable for development by the weekend and perhaps could form into a tropical depression by next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Don continues trekking along in the central Atlantic and in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Calvin brought heavy rain to the Hawaii Islands but has since dissipated and become post-tropical.