FORT COLLINS — Colorado State University has updated its 2023 hurricane season forecast and continues to predict an “above-normal” season with 18 named storms for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
The big question that remains is how record warm waters in the Atlantic will interact with El Niño.
“A robust El Niño is why CSU’s hurricane forecast is not for even more activity given a record warm Atlantic,” said Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at CSU specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.
“The extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is anticipated to counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear,” CSU forecasters said.
In July, forecasters revised their predictions higher than their original forecast in April, which predicted a slightly below-normal season.
Hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin — which consists of the Atlantic Ocean north of the equator, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico — has been quiet since Tropical Storms Bret and Cindy in late June and Hurricane Don in July.
CSU calling for 18 named storms, 4 major hurricanes
CSU’s forecast for the remainder of the season released today was a repeat of the prediction issued July 6.
Forecasters are predicting 18 named storms and nine hurricanes. Four of the hurricanes are forecast to become major storms, of Category 3 or higher. A major hurricane is one where maximum sustained winds are at least 111 mph.
The numbers include the five storms that have formed already this year.